Carwin (11-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a tremendous physical specimen with strong athletic credentials, including a NCAA Division II championship and two national runner-up trophies in wrestling, and two-time All-American honors in football.
Carwin’s elite athleticism has translated well to MMA so far and gives him a dominant wrestling ability and brutal ground and pound. The 34-year-old Colorado native has never been outside the first round in a fight and has his opponents in an average of a little more than a minute. Carwin is now training with Greg Jackson’s elite camp in New Mexico alongside elite standouts such as Georges St-Pierre, Rashad Evans and Nate Marquardt.
Frank Mir (13-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC) is a skilled grappler and holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Ricardo Pires. Mir is a jiu-jitsu technician but lacks elite cardio and wrestling skills, and he historically has been regarded as limited in stand-up skills as well. Mir has appeared to many to showcase improved standup skills of late, but I believe Mir’s technical standup skills may not match up to the hype they’ve been given.
First, don’t let Mir’s one-sided beatdown of Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira at UFC 92 trick you. Nogueira was suffering from a severe injury and a severe staph infection, both of which required hospitalization after the fight. “Minotauro” had absolutely no business being in the cage that night, and Mir’s victory should be completely disregarded by the serious handicapper because he wasn’t fighting a capable opponent but a shambling, static punching bag with essentially no ability to fight back.
Second, I don’t put significant stock in Mir’s recent victory over Cheick Kongo. Yes, Mir was able to clip Kongo early and drop him. If you look at the tape, Kongo was clearly expecting Mir to come out and take the fight to the ground and was caught unaware by Mir moving forward to strike. That said, Mir was able to drop Kongo with a shot to the chin, but Kongo recovered immediately and appeared close to reversing the situation by putting Mir on his back against the cage. Unfortunately, Kongo exposed his neck during the takedown attempt, and Mir was able to capitalize by slapping on a quick guillotine.
All credit to Mir for the win, of course. I’m just saying that as a handicapper, I can’t draw a lot of information from that fight. Mir didn’t showcase elite standup skills. He landed essentially a single punch to an opponent who was thinking “defend his shot” vs. “defend his punch.” That single punch certainly had good form but didn’t have the power to put Kongo out for long. Mir slapping on a quick guillotine when Kongo made a mistake likewise didn’t tell me much; we knew going in that if Kongo did something stupid like exposing his neck, the fight would be over quickly. In other words, while Mir looked great and got a solid win, I can’t really draw any serious information from the fight as a gambler.
This is why I’m still not sold on “Frank Mir 2.0″ and why I think he’s being overrated here against Carwin. Carwin’s power and chin are both incredible. Carwin is an elite physical specimen, and I think that Mir’s newfound confidence in his standup skills is going to get him in a lot of trouble. Unlike Kongo, Carwin has elite wrestling and takedown defense and doesn’t have to worry about Mir shooting on him as a primary tactic. Mir should be able to keep focused on Mir’s standup and respond with his own. While Mir might be a more technical striker, Carwin has gobs of power, and I believe it’s just too likely that he can overwhelm Mir. We’re still not too far removed from Frank Mir getting obliterated standing by an undersized Brandon Vera.
Mir certainly has the tools to capitalize on any mistakes made by Carwin and end the fight by submission, but I believe that given Carwin’s significant edge in weight and strength, Mir will likely find those opportunities few and far between. Look for Greg Jackson to have Carwin well-schooled in employing Lesnar-like techniques on the ground and to use Carwin’s advantages in strength and wrestling to neutralize Mir’s technique.
I expect Carwin wins via strikes in the first round while catching Mir with a big shot and overwhelming him with a fast follow-up.
While we’ve not seen Carwin’s cardio tested. As an NCAA heavyweight wrestling champion and overall elite athlete – not to mention training at altitude in his home state of Colorado – he should be expected to have a cardio edge over Mir, even carrying all that muscle mass. As such, even if he can’t finish the fight early, Carwin should gain the advantage the longer the fight goes.
